"I expect to die in bed, my successor will die in prison and his successor will die a martyr in the public square. His successor will pick up the shards of a ruined society and slowly help rebuild civilization, as the church has done so often in human history." -Cardinal Francis George

Friday, November 11, 2011

Good news fellow breeders!

I stumbled upon this article in the Economist which uses straight line demographic extrapolations to predict the extinction of certain countries based on trends in fertility rates.

Primer on population demographics

 Fertility rate is births per woman over her lifetime. Replacement rate is the fertility rate at which a population does not grow or shrink. The math tells us that rate should be 2, but factoring in infant mortality rates, it varies from 2.1 in developed countries to up to 3.3 in developing countries. The average worldwide replacement rate is 2.33.

They miss the point

There are a few problems of course, with their results, the biggest of which is pushing numbers out into the distant future based on current trends. I mean, who knows what fertility rates will look like in 20 years let alone 200. And some of these predictions go 500 to 1000 years into the future. Who knows what they will even look like after the current worldwide economic crisis. But still, it is interesting to speculate.

But another thing I noticed was they are simply taking fertility rate which are less than replacement (or those which are predicted to be going less than replacement) for large populations and extrapolating them into the future until they reach Zero population. This won't work in most countries because there are always subsets of the population with a much higher than average fertility rate. Perhaps in a more homogeneous culture like Japan, with it's imploding 1.39 fertility rate this will work, but not in places like the US or Europe. This is because I can foresee there always being certain groups of people that will always have well above replacement level.

I will use my own family as an example: My mother was born in the forties, one of 4 children. That is twice the replacement rate. She in turn had four children. From her four children she currently has 24 grand kids (8+6+5+5=24). And one of her children (moi) may well have more. And she is just getting started on great-grand kids with a measly 5 so far. Anyway, my point is that my extended family has an average fertility rate of 6. That is triple the replacement level folks. So lets say the United States fertility level drops below it's current fertility rate of 2.06 (which is just at or slightly below replacement for us). Does that mean our population is going to hit zero eventually?
No way!
What it means is 2 things are going to happen: One, for a few decades the total population numbers will begin to decline right along with the fertility rate. Two, once the population declines enough, the fertility rate will begin to exponentially increase. Why? Because the population will begin to be exponentially composed of breeders whose rate is 4+.

What we need to do is not see fertility rate delineated by national boundaries. We need to see it based on ideology. The fact that I am an American says not that much about me. The fact that I am a conservative Christian says a lot more. Being a conservative Catholic Christian also means that my offspring are more likely to stay Catholic and be breeders with a high fertility rate like their parents.

Now where it starts to get weird is when you look at the other groups with high fertility rates. Islam is at the top of the list. What the picture of the world 75 years from now begins to look like as it comes into focus is a a big cross and a big scimitar.

See you in the future! I know my 500 great-great-grand kids will be enjoying it!

Sci Fi scenario

2085. 17 Billion people on the Earth. Western culture has imploded through evil philosophy, their cities are filled with second and third generation immigrants from the global south, with the minority whites in Europe and America aging and still exponentially shrinking. European Cathedrals have been sold and are now mosques filled with young Muslims, while in Uganda, Catholics and Pentecostals are building 10 churches a week to keep up with the exploding Christian population. Vatican City remains the lone sovereign nation in Europe that is not a secular Islamic state (like Turkey is in 2011). The 1.2 billion Catholics of 2011 have exploded and are now 5 billion strong, with 85% of them being in South America, Asia, and most of all... Africa. Along with them have grown the Pentecostals (which now number 3 million) in the same areas, who have overtaken the rest of Protestantism which mostly died out in obscurity mid century, although there are minority pockets tolerated in the 90% Catholic USA. Europe is Muslim. Sunni Islam now numbers 6 billion and is centered in the Islamic Republic of France which is the founding member of the Islamic European Union (IEU, formerly the EU), Which has been at war with China and the Americas for the last 10 years. Atheism and non-religion is unheard of, having killed itself through lack of replication and genetic tampering. Most nations instituted laws against "irreligion" after the DNA War of 2047, in which 280 million people in industrialized western countries were killed by their own bio-mechanical cyborgs by either interbreeding with them or direct warfare.


  1. I totally agree with your call to take things more calmly by not projecting hundreds of years into the future and thus scaring ourselves to death. That said, Patrick Buchanan has been posting a lot of articles about the problems of unchecked multiculturalism, which is wiping out our nation as we speak.

    Not only is there a problem with fertility rates in former Christian lands, but there is a demographics disaster in regards to broken families. Buchanan reports that the illegitimacy rate in America is 70% of Blacks, 50% of Hispanics, and 25% of Whites. That means a huge percentage of folks grow up in a broken home, most without a father figure. This will undoubtedly lead to a serious crisis in this generation and the next as these folks have no moral compass, wont have the drive to get an education, and likely require significant welfare.

    The number one overlooked detail in all of this is Divine Providence, which always finds a way to fix things and get rid of things that have not been working. Encouraging Catholic families is one aspect of this, as eventually they'll be majorities in what used to be denominationalist dominated areas.

  2. "Encouraging Catholic families is one aspect of this, as eventually they'll be majorities in what used to be denominationalist dominated areas."

    Do you think they will be the majority because of pure demographics (faithful Catholics breeding more), or Divine Providence?

    Interesting take on the broken family stats. I am the product of a fatherless broken home. Those children are wild cards. They can turn out like me (a religious zealot shamelessly proceletizing and shoving religion down throats) or they could become criminals, or anything inbetween. But unfortunately, the broken moral compass ones are likely to be the most common.

  3. I think they will be majority by Providence through demographics.

    And I totally agree with your assessment. Broken families can produce amazing Christians/Catholics, and many are from such backgrounds, but you're right that the vast majority don't end up like that.

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  5. Well, about the "sci fi scenario". I see you omit Asia (except China). Today Asian countries are heavily evangelized (Protestants and Catholics alike) amongst various degrees of persecution.

    I think in this scenario, in 2085 I believe China is now a democratic country, unified with Taiwan, and 80% Christians. As the same case as Korea. Vietnam also a democratic country (40% Catholic, 40% Buddhist)

    Philippines remain faithful to the Christian faith, now 50 million strong. Indonesia, 400 million people, 70% Christians (Catholics and Protestants alike, 40:60). Malaysia and Brunei remain Islamic majority, even their number is start to decline in this point. Thailand, Indochinese countries (Laos, Cambodia) and Myanmar remain mostly Buddhist, but Christians are more accepted in this point.

    Japan experienced massive population boom started in 2025, and now relatively stable in 80 million people (60% are now Christians), and reclaim it's economic powerhouse status.

    After a devastation caused by a "mini nuclear warfare" in 2030. India and Pakistan saw massive revival, and 50% of their people accept Christ.

    Afghanistan remain Islamic, and remain unstable, in contrast of her neighbor Iran, which now 50% Christian out of her 100 million people, even with heavy persecution.

    1. Lukas,
      I like your take! It is fun to speculate.
      The reason I didnt include Asia is the really low fertility rates, combined with a more ideologically homogeneous population in many cases. I hope I am wrong, but I do not think there are many endogenous growth sects by and large in Asian counties.. And I must say, your take on Japan is definitely fantasy. I am a big fan of the Japanese people and culture, so I hope you are right, but they are incredibly homogeneous and isolationist, and have very, very low fertility rate. And worse yet, any way you look at the reasons for it being low, those reasons are very unlikely to change. Very sad, but they have a cultural aspect that is combining with the other aspects we know of in the west that reduce fertility, and it is a bad cocktail. Other than divine intervention, the Japanese will be irrelevant in 75 years, and a relic in a century. They are running on fumes in a way that makes for a great petri-dish for the future of demographics in other industrialized countries.
      Barring a big Holy Spirit led revival in the middle east, The future is Jihad Vs. Crusade on a global scale a few generations from now. If this interests you.. you will like this:


    2. Sir, to inform you I'm not a Catholic..
      But you also need to know that even under heavy persecution, Chinese Christians are thriving. If Lord change their government' heart, China are going to espouse democracy and even peaceful reunification with Taiwan, and increase in population (incl. some immigration from overseas. Remember, 1 of 5 people in the world are Chinese!).

      To inform you again, my country's fertility rate (Indonesia) today are 2,4 (but we don't know the future and Indonesians in general, since fall of Soeharto don't too much give a problem about child size prove that you able to nurture them.. I personally still believe child number are personal choice with the Lord. In Indonesia we have an equivalent of planned parenthood but not providing abortions and the enforcement of 2 child rule are lax). Our country also have some cases of Christian persecution, but the numbers of Christians (Catholic and Protestants alike) are rising since 1970s, same case of all Asia particularly in Korea. http://specialguests.com/guests/viewnews.cgi?id=EkZEAFVVppYxPugDDo&style=Full%20Article.

      Singapore, in 50 years if they are not aware, they could be wiped off the map (low fertility), and merged back into Malaysia.. (except of immigration and well, Holy Spirit's intervention. Singapore are not a nation-state.. they consists of Chinese, Indians, Malays mostly, like their neighbor Malaysia)

      In my scenario, in some time in the future, without great power's meddling, both Koreas are going to fight each other again, and North Korea will "reunified by force" with the South. About South Korea, there also concern about low fertility and abortions there. If Koreans are start to believe in Christ more, you know the result..

      I don't know situation in Central Asia (Mongolia and former Soviet countries) so I cannot tell their possible scenarios at that time.

      My Asian scenario are bit optimistic, but if it's God will, everything is possible!
      But I ask you, sir, should Christians (denominations disregarded) view Islam as a threat?

    3. Additional scenarios: Russia. If it God's will, President Putin managed to increase Russia's fertility. Since fall of the Soviet Union the Russians started having revivals in their faith. in 2085 their number could be 300 to 350 mln people. Despite I didn't agree his action in Ukraine today and some of his treatment against his political opposition, I commend Mr Putin for standing with his conviction (fighting against abortion and homosexual ideology)

  6. "should Christians (denominations disregarded) view Islam as a threat?"

    Islam should be viewed as a threat because it simply is currently a threat, and it always has been. It is a violent Christian cult whose leader advocated the mass killing of Christians and Jews and anyone else that stands in Islams way. I have known many good Muslim people, but the religion is the most dangerous poison the world has ever known.